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Live CFTC

Ercot.Hb_North_Month_Off_Rtp - Nodal Exchange

064FOL
AgricultureDisaggregated

Signal state

Bearish-26

Generated market from CFTC archives.

Signal layer

Score breakdown

How the +100 to -100 conviction score is calculated

Macro Score

+8 pts

Target Exposure

-26%

Market History

Net Positioning History

Historical net positioning (Longs minus Shorts) for the reference trader group.

Compare Markets
Ercot.Hb_North_Month_Off_Rtp - Nodal Exchange — Reference Group — 6 Month Positioning Report
Report DateLong PositionsShort PositionsChange in LongsChange in ShortsNet PositionsNet Change% OI Long% OI ShortOpen Interest
Max71,09257,080+66,064+55,39514,612+10,66985.6%69.5%85,043
Min250-2,237-2,07525-6000.0%0.0%78,361
13 Per. Avg63,61251,392+5,389+4,34812,220+1,04178.3%63.2%81,290
Mar 24, 202670,08556,525+900+1,50013,560-60084.7%68.3%82,760
Mar 17, 202669,18555,025+0+30014,160-30084.8%67.5%81,584
Mar 10, 202669,18554,725-1,907-1,75514,460-15284.7%67.0%81,664
Mar 3, 202671,09256,480+600-60014,612+1,20084.9%67.4%83,761
Feb 24, 202670,49257,080+2,620+2,62013,412+084.8%68.6%83,161
Feb 17, 202667,87254,460+920+32013,412+60085.4%68.5%79,521
Feb 10, 202666,95254,140-2,237-2,07512,812-16285.4%69.1%78,361
Feb 3, 202669,18956,215+0+012,974+085.6%69.5%80,838
Jan 27, 202669,18956,215+0+012,974+085.6%69.5%80,838
Jan 20, 202669,18956,215+780+60012,974+18085.6%69.5%80,838
Jan 13, 202668,40955,615+2,320+22012,794+2,10084.8%69.0%80,658
Jan 6, 202666,08955,395+66,064+55,39510,694+10,66981.2%68.1%81,393
Dec 30, 2025250+0+025+00.0%0.0%81,393
Dec 23, 2025250+0+025+00.0%0.0%81,393
Dec 16, 2025250+0+025+00.0%0.0%81,153
Dec 9, 2025250-25+025-250.0%0.0%80,673
Dec 2, 2025500+0+050+00.1%0.0%83,633
Nov 25, 2025500+0+050+00.1%0.0%83,113
Nov 18, 2025500+0+050+00.1%0.0%83,113
Nov 10, 2025500-25+050-250.1%0.0%83,938
Nov 4, 2025750+0+075+00.1%0.0%84,923
Oct 28, 2025750+0+075+00.1%0.0%85,043
Oct 21, 2025750+0+075+00.1%0.0%83,823
Oct 14, 2025750+0+075+00.1%0.0%83,223
Oct 7, 2025750-25+075-250.1%0.0%79,793
Sep 30, 20251000+0+0100+00.1%0.0%82,963

COT report

Longs vs shorts by trader category — week by week

Browse the official CFTC report week by week to see how each trader group's positioning has shifted. The WoW Δ column shows the net contract change from the prior week.

Mar 24, 2026(Latest)
Open interest: 82,760 contractsWeek 1 of 26
Trader typeLongShortNetLong % OIShort % OINet % OIWoW Δ Net

Producer Merchant

70,08556,52513,560+84.7%+68.3%+16.4%-600

Swap Dealers

2,11614,530-12,414+2.6%+17.6%-15.0%+600

Other Reportables

01,000-1,000+0.0%+1.2%-1.2%+0

Nonreportable

8,0398,185-146+9.7%+9.9%-0.2%+0

Interpretation layer

Why the terminal reads this market the way it does

The platform turns the underlying scores into a readable narrative: pressure, confirmation, macro support, and crowding.

Positioning pressure

The market is leaning bearish. This week looks steady versus the recent range.

Trend check

Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet.

Macro check

Macro conditions are mostly neutral right now.

Crowding

Traders are heavily crowded short.

Current positioning

The market is leaning bearish. Traders are heavily crowded short. Producer Merchant is currently net long by 13,560 contracts.

Macro regime

Macro conditions are mostly neutral for Ercot.Hb_North_Month_Off_Rtp - Nodal Exchange.

Replay summary

Constructive bearish regime. The market is leaning bearish. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are mostly neutral right now.

Risk layer

Veto reasons and caution flags

These are the conditions that reduce conviction even when the raw positioning signal looks strong.

Extreme crowding — squeeze risk elevated.
Price trend does not confirm positioning.
Macro environment is not supportive.